In the last few days, I’ve had multiple people tell me that Putin has a “secret” plan for invading Ukraine, that it’s not really what it seems, and that you’ll never hear about it on the news. (I’m always curious how so many people know so much about things that “nobody is talking about.” But ever since I saw 87% of my class wearing Zubaz to be “different” back in the 90s, I don’t ask those sorts of questions.)
So I thought I might give you the perspective of a slightly below average historian. Prepare yourself for the awesome wisdom:
**THERE IS NO SECRET PLAN**
In fact, there is a very not-secret plan. A plan that Putin has not only hinted at, but verbalized numerous times for about two or three decades. There is a plan that everybody in Russia knows, everybody in Europe knows, and generally anyone with a moderate amount of literacy knows. Are you ready to hear the plan? Here it comes.
Putin wants the borders of the USSR restored.
(Write that down. I’ll quiz you on it later.)
Now, first off, let me say that this does not mean that Putin wants the USSR again. Putin has been around long enough to know Communism in that form does not work long term. He is not trying to rebuild the Communist Soviet Union. He does however believe that the current form of Russia (exactly how much freedom and democracy he wants is a little debated) should be the size of the former USSR.
That means he wants all of the former territories back. That means the Baltic states; that means Kazakhstan; that means Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, my beloved Armenia, and, yes, especially now, Ukraine.
Everybody in these countries knows that. Everybody in Europe knows that. Anyone who’s spent a little time listening to him and studying Russian history knows that. It’s not a secret. It’s a very public, very obvious, and very strategic plan.
PLANNING THE PLAN
So, if this is the plan, and if you were Putin, what would you do? Let me throw out some wild guesses here.
1 – You might try to position yourself as the leader in those areas. You might step in whenever there’s a conflict and be the “big brother” in the room to settle disputes. Let those countries start thinking of you as the wise arbiter. Say, for example, what happened in the recent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
2 – You might encourage people in those countries to resist their current leadership. You might give them gifts, military aid, and slip them a few bucks now and again. Remind them how much better things would be if you were in charge again. Like Putin did with Eastern Ukraine.
3 – Let’s say these countries had another “big brother” that was helping them (coughUnitedStatescough). Well, you’re going to need that other brother to look bad. You might encourage that other “brother” to stop helping them, or break deals with them, so that they are forced to look to you for help. Sort of like what happened when a certain administration in the United States decided to abandon the Kurds and Armenia and force them to look to Moscow for help.
4 – You might try to get that other brother distracted with other things. Say, with local infighting. You might use cyber attacks to encourage groups to see each other as the enemy rather than you. You might try to make friends with that other guy. You might try to get that other brother to see you as the good guy, and especially make sure that they are talking about how maybe you aren’t so bad after all. Sort of what happened with Putin and Trump, and what’s happening now with Tucker Carlson telling everyone how Ukraine is probably in the wrong here.
5 – You might try to get control of energy production in those countries you want, and block any other development that might make those countries independent of your supplies. Sort of what’s happening with Nord and a host of other energy projects Russia has pursued over the last two decades.
6 – Finally, you need to make it look like you’re just there to help, so you need those other countries to give you an excuse. Perhaps you provoke them enough so that they have to retaliate, kind of like a big brother might wave his finger constantly in front of your face saying “not touching you. Not touching you.” Until you punch him, and then you get in trouble and he gets all the skittles (I mean, I’m just guessing. It’s not like I experienced this multiple times growing up.) This is what has happened in Ukraine in the last couple of weeks.
In short my friend, you would do exactly what Putin has been doing since roughly fifteen seconds after 1991. This is not a “secret” plan. This is a plan that Russia has formulated and strategized and prepared for years. I would argue they used the open window of the last five years to set the stage for this moment, and are now taking their shot.
PLANNING THE PLAN TO RESPOND TO THE PLAN
It’s not a secret plan, with secret goals, that only the secret wisdom of secret groups has. It’s a long-term plan, with well known goals, and the question is at what point the world (particularly the US and Europe) will stand up and say “you may go no further.” Russia is particularly interested in Ukraine because they want the Black Sea, and by extension, the Mediterranean. Does Europe care enough about keeping Russia out of there that they will fight? I honestly don’t know.
Maybe Europe will say it’s fine if Russia has that access. Maybe they will say Ukraine and no more. Or maybe they’ll say Ukraine, Armenia and Azerbaijan, but no more. Or maybe they’ll say nothing, and put up some token sanctions but nothing else. I don’t know. That’s what people with more information and more experience than me will decide. I don’t envy their responsibility.
But let’s be done with the secret plan garbage, or the idea that this just happened in the last year, or that somehow a single summit will solve this. A deal may stave off this particular invasion, but rest assured, Putin and his successors will continue toward this goal for the foreseeable future. This has been, is, and will be the Plan.
The only question is what the world will plan in return.